What Digger's Box Office Failure Means For Tom Cruise's Future

Warner Bros.

Tom Cruise has been one of the biggest movie stars on the planet for a very long time. But the old saying goes, the bigger they are, the harder they fall. That's rarely been more true, so far as the movie business goes, than in the case of Cruise's latest film, "Digger," which flopped in a bad way at the box office this past weekend. The failure leaves a lot of questions in its wake. Most notably, what the heck does it mean for the future of Cruise's career?

Directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu ("Birdman," "The Revenant") and released by Warner Bros., the big-budget disaster dramedy opened to a dismal $20 million worldwide, including a truly bleak $8 million domestically. "Digger" was shaping up to be a box office disaster for Cruise ahead of its debut, but that was when it was tracking to open closer to $20 million in North America alone. In reality, it proved to be much, much worse than industry analysts expected.

Its financial failure is compounded by the fact that its budget is reported to be in the $160 million range, with some citing it as high as $180 million. Mind you, that figure doesn't include marking costs. It's going to lose a fortune for WB, just as the Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount merger became official. This is a catastrophe, and one that Cruise is going to have to shoulder a lot of the responsibility for.

The movie centers on the most powerful man in the world as he embarks on a frantic mission to prove he is humanity's savior before the disaster he's unleashed destroys everything. The star-studded cast also includes Riz Ahmed ("Sound of Metal"), John Goodman ("Argo"), Sandra Hüller ("Project Hail Mary"), Michael Stuhlbarg ("Dopesick"), and Jesse Plemons ("Bugonia").

Warner Bros.

Tom Cruise may not have directed "Digger," but he takes a very active role in the productions he's involved with, both as a producer and creative voice on set. No one could tell Cruise no while making the last two "Mission: Impossible" movies, even though Paramount was cashing the checks and Christopher McQuarrie was in the director's chair.

"Digger" is going to reflect poorly on Cruise, who is now in his 60s. He spent the last 15 years as the world's biggest action movie star, but age will catch up to him. This divisive dramedy represented a chance for him to get away from his action persona. It didn't exactly pan out. That's not to say this alone will ruin his career or anything. Yes, plenty of actors never recovered from box office flops, but Cruise is big enough to recover. It's just going to require the right strategy.

We already know that Cruise's next big sequel is "Days of Thunder 2." That is very clearly chasing the success of both "Top Gun: Maverick" and last year's "F1." On paper it seems wise, though it's hard to say that "Days of Thunder" is as big in the zeitgeist as the original "Top Gun." It's risky. What Cruise really needs are some surefire hits.

"Mission: Impossible 9" may or may not happen, but it's now easier to envision Cruise coming back as Ethan Hunt, perhaps to pass the torch to a younger actor. "Top Gun 3" is the most obvious sure thing and that now feels like a must-have for both Skydance and Cruise. Whatever he does next, Cruise is now, for the first time in a long time, having to prove that he's still got that A-list star power.

"Digger" is in theaters now.